please post any subsequent updates here unless they’re huge happenings. i just woke up and half our news front page is updates which is nice but also A Lot and most of these don’t have to be their own thread
Wagner troops taking over nuclear facility
A nuclear weapons storage facility. The prospect of Prigozhin and his prison-recruited mercenaries in charge of nuclear weapons is not reassuring.
While that’s true, those weapons are currently under the control of a fascist government and increasingly desperate despot, so I don’t see how them being in the hands of mercs is any worse. At least you know what mercs are motivated by.
I wonder how many of them are actually made of wood.
For context: I’m Estonian. Our nation has a great deal of history with Russian imperialism, under both tsarist and soviet rules. Even Putin has threatened us before. So clearly I’m not a supporter of the Russian regime or their imperialistic ambitions. However, I’m going to present an unpopular opinion.
The balkanization of Russia, if it were to happen, would not be beneficial in the long run. At least not for the people at large.
Yes, the big western cities would be a lot more liberal and open to democracy than the vast countryside. However, we need to consider the fact that different Russian oblasts have VAST differences in economic power. The big cities will thrive on their own, sure, but their tax money would then no longer be used to help people in the more remote regions. Not that these regions are getting a lot of attention now, but at least under a different regime for the current Russian nation as it is, it’d be possible to improve infrastructure, education, industry, etc. for towns in remote oblasts.
And leaving those people farther and farther behind, will cause new unrests. And definitely there would be military dictatorships who promise better lives, etc.
Therefore, a division of Russia into small states might actually cause more issues in the long run. Not that I’m a fan of it staying intact either.
It’s a choice between two evils of unknown magnitude, the only good thing is that none of us are the ones making that choice so we don’t have to live with it on our consciences.
Having some of these countries turn into democracies is better than having none of these countries turn into democracies. Large countries like Russia cannot cohesively rule over its populace without establishing some sort of dictatorship. Democracy in Russia didn’t last because there were too many rich oligarchs corrupting government power back to a form they could control. China is in the same category.
If they have any hope to establish and maintain a democracy, the country must be broken up.
Nice theory but it doesn’t hold up very well. Both Canada and Australia are enormous countries that are both well functioning democracies.
There are a number of great sources that describe the conditions for good democracies - and intolerance of corruption is a vital condition. That’s something that has never really been taken seriously in Russia, so in some ways it’s no surprise it’s come to this.
India is also an example of a very corrupt and badly managed democracy, so your point is moot.
The reality as far as we’ve seen is that certain cultures where information is tightly controlled, traditional masculinity is prized, and sole survivor mentality among men is very valued, there tends to be more of an acceptance if not casual support for the simplicity of a dictatorship.
The other issue is that not all democracies are equal and an educated and experienced populace where individuals are most capable of taking care of themselves while providing maximum utility for themselves and others is where democracy is most likely to be of greatest compliment for a system.
About 90% of Canada lives 100 miles from the southern border, so I wouldn’t call the whole country “populated”. Australia is in a similar situation with its deserts. Sure, Russia also has cold, sparsely populated regions, but most of the landmass is still habitable.
Even then, Russia is still twice as large as both of those countries, and has at least double the population density.
It might cause more issues in those states but wouldn’t each of them be weaker? I don’t know how to fix Russia, but if it can’t be fixed I’d rather they not be strong enough to attack other countries.
Depends on whether they’ll manage to get control of the nukes. They’re likely stashed all around the nation, but the question is how difficult it would be to gain launch capability, since the existing infrastructure would likely not be usable by local militaries.
We’re also talking about the potential suffering of millions of people.
If the local economies fail to sustain and source advanced material and components needed for the infrastructure, it might end up not being a big problem.
I imagine the nations would end up falling under the control of other nations, such as China, who does not desire nuclear war.
But yes, it would very much still be a humanitarian nightmare for those places.
I doubt anyone would seriously want to fire a nuke even if the country fell into a civil war.
It’s more of a saying or sentiment so to speak - that the system could be nuked and people would perhaps arguably be better off to reform from scratch, with the knowledge of hindsight rather than with the current difficulties.
Chances are decent that the nukes don’t work any more, so that may not be a threat at all.
I’m still reluctant to put that hypothesis to the test, though, for obvious reasons…
I doubt the tritium is being reliably refilled, but a second stage fizzle is still a disaster, and I’m sure at least some of them can still create a sizable explosion
Right you are. I also wonder whether the rockets all still work, but as you say, at least some of them probably still do.
Yeaaaaaah unlikely in that culture.
To me, the larger issue for the world outside of Russia is the ensuing chaos would be pretty scary when there are nukes sitting around. All it would take is one bad actor to get ahold of those for bad things to happen. I don’t think it’s likely and I can’t currently see the motivations for using nukes on any other nations apart from Russia itself and Ukraine, but chaos is chaos and many would consider the evil we know to be safer than whatever else lurks around the corner.
Personally, though, despite being aware of this it would regardless please me so much to see Putin fall. I would especially love to see Russia democratize more, but I’m afraid that’s probably a pipe dream anytime soon. Uncontrolled chaos generally doesn’t lend itself to more democracy.
Yeah, I fear you are right. Democratization hardly ever happens from within the system.
The big cities will thrive on their own, sure, but their tax money would then no longer be used to help people in the more remote regions.
As an Australian, I assure you it is possible for a country of “big cities” to fund activity in remote areas. I won’t say we do it a perfect job of it here, but we do a decent enuogh job and some of our remote towns are far more remote than anything in the northern hemisphere. Some Australian towns are several hours by airplane to the nearest city and don’t even have a reliable source of water. And yet, the people living there have relatively comfortable lives.
The problem in my mind is that the big cities and the remote areas would likely become separate countries, so there’ll be about a 100x difference in GDP per capita between the richest and poorest post-Russian nations.
Another large convoy of Kadyrov forces, also about 200 pieces of equipment, is going from Mariupol to Rostov!
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1672632206580240384?cxt=HHwWgMC-kaiIsbYuAAAA
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1672614474967322624?s=20
graphic showing the progress of Prigozhin’s rebellion. Little bright spots mark district centers where evidence of fighting has been observed, and big bright spots mark cities where explosions have been heard. Regions where Wagner column has been spotted marked in purple
Ukraine’s intelligence had foreseen this coup 3 months ago. Budanov’s “shh” makess a lot more sense now.
source : https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1672490934116708352
https://twitter.com/novayagazeta_en/status/1672613447673032704?t=31GbI-jXa6-6oC0Lve85YQ&s=19
Source: PMC Wagner leadership ordered mercenaries stationed in Moscow region to ‘be ready to move towards the incoming units’ yesterday.
Two fighters of PMC Wagner who are currently on leave in the Moscow region told Novaya-Europe that back yesterday they had been contacted by representatives of the PMC leadership and ordered to “be prepared to move towards the incoming units of the PMC”.
In practice, Prigozhin declared mobilisation among his former employees: there could be at least 30,000 of them in addition to the fighters that are already in service, military expert Georgy Aleksandrov tells Novaya-Europe. 1/
Leonid Nevzlin: Putin is hiding in the bunker of his residence in Valdai. His closest friends and associates also flew there. The dictator is in a panic. Additional troops advanced towards Valdai to protect him. My sources just said this.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672616852319551488?cxt=HHwWgIC2_cmKqrYuAAAA
Prigozhin would be wise to never go above the ground floor.
according to The Telegraph, Russia may end up disintegrating entirely over this https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/24/russia-verge-collapse-elites-try-escape-wagner-coup/
Imagine if St. Petersburg and maybe Moscow were part of a new democratic nation that eventually joins the EU or at least opens up borders and trade with EU like Norway and Switzerland for an example. I’d probably visit Petersburg at least.
One can dream.
i’d honestly love to visit St. Petersburg if that happens
It’s honestly a beautiful city and us Estonians used to have cruises to Petersburg much like there are cruises to Stockholm. I never went because I don’t speak Russian and I’ve been uneasy about visiting the country under its’ current regime, but if things change for the better, I’m tempted to go.
What are the chances this will impact the war in Ukraine in a positive way for Ukraine? Will we possibly see an end to the war soon?
Probably not quite yet - they’ll want to give Russian units time to retreat from the frontline and intervene in Russia.
Seems like a good time for them to be enquiring about Warner’s day-rates
Rushing can also do more damage than helping; it all depends on what is happening for sure.
However, it is a double-edge sword here. One is that they don’t need to waste limited resources they have (ammo, humans, tanks, etc) on units that may be called back to Russia to help against the rebellion or join the rebellion.
Waiting for that means they’ll fight against much smaller units and so on, which can protect Ukrainian’s soldiers from getting killed as well. So, they should take this time to shore up their offensive, give them breaks, watch for new weaknesses to appear and so on.
Slow and steady can be much more effective than fast and fail.
Remember that many Ukrainians do not want to kill Russians, many of Russian soliders are still their brothers and sisters that were conscripted or forced into this.
Zero chances it will end the war. Russians are used to swapping out regimes all the time.
This is just an infighting between two criminals, whoever wins is not going to be better for anyone.
Wanger is war fighting force, they’re not a peace-keeping unit, they’ll keep the war going if it benefits them.
The same regime has been in power 24 years.
Ok you could say the same thing about France. Also you repeated the same groups multiple times. The Romanovs were Tsars. Stalin Lenin and Gorbachev were all Bolsheviks, and although there was a struggle when Stalin took over Lenin to Stalin was just the passing of the torch between one revolutionary leader to the next. So really your long list of regime changes were: Catherine the Great from 1796, the Tsars who lost power in 1917, and Gorbachev who brought the USSR down in 1991. I’ll give you that Russia went through a period of intense chaos in the 90s between the dissolution of the USSR and when Putin took over. But 3 regime changes over 250 years isn’t that much.
I don’t think it would though - they have limited supplies and people, and if they take Russia they’ll need all of that to keep it. Fighting a second war at the same time would be more costly than it’s worth I think.
They’re not used to running a country, either. That’s a different skillset than their usual, so they may run into extra problems there.
It doesn’t benefit them. They’ve lost tons of people and they’re up against a determined adversary swimming in NATO firepower.
I believe it ensures a much much sooner end, yes, but exactly when depends on who wins.
If Putin wins his authority will be significantly weakened, his army will be significantly weakened, and it’s likely he’d have to pull more of them away to ensure his leadership and security even after Wagner is defeated.
If Wagner wins the army will likely be immediately recalled out of Ukraine, they will want to confirm the army’s submission to new rule and ensure no counter coup attempts, but also it would be very easy to blame Putin for everything and win popularity with the Russian people by bringing back soldiers who would likely have died pointlessly.
Crimea, however, may be a point of contention, depending on the opinions of the winners.
I guess I don’t really care who wins as long as the war ends sooner, and no nukes are used.
Ukraine has gotten back territory from the Russians they haven’t had since 2014!
I’d imagine there are benefits to them in that it weakens their enemy, because either Wagner loses, and therefore Russia loses the forces they represent, or they succeed, which would mean uncertainty and chaos among the regular army during the transition. There’s also potential for Russian forces to be weakened anywhere that Wagner was holding and removed troops from, or anywhere held by troops that get redirected to fight them, and off course that this will mean Russia takes losses and spends equipment fighting itself instead of Ukraine.
Actually, any new leader would likely leave Ukraine immediately. The war has been an overwhelming failure and embarrassment, and the new leader can blame the old leader for leading the country down that road.
Putin would leave too if he didn’t think that admitting defeat would get him killed.
There’s no real “benefit” to Ukraine in this, is there?
Well, it appears that some of the baddies will be killing off each other, saving Ukraine the trouble.
Without the Wagner group, Russia will have much lesser professional troops on their side. And this entire thing could also have a severe impact on the morale of the soldiers.
But Wagner boss said that the justification for the war is wrong and that Putin was tricked by the defense ministers to go into it in the first place. I highly doubt that they would continue a conflict they see no advantage to continuing. No, this won’t stop all wars but it might stop this one.
Exactly, this is the boss that was complaining to Kremlin and folks on telegram that they’re going to pull from Ukraine because Russian’s military isn’t supplying them with ammo.
They didn’t pull for months, still fought with “almost zero ammo”. They suddenly have ammo now? The same ammo they said they have zero of?
This is the “nothing” I was referring to, I didn’t say they didn’t do anything in general, I’m saying they said a lot of bullshit and did nothing of the sort. Thus, don’t believe what they say in public, because in the background, they’re doing something else.
I’ll clarify what I mean in the original post to “did nothing what they said they were going to do in public”.
If this goes on long enough it will most likely fuck up morale and put a considerable strain on the actual state army. That might give Ukraine time to at the very least recover. If the internal devastation is big enough whoever comes on as the next dictator might even have to technically end “the special operation” because there’s no resources to keep it going and they could do so while saving face, because it’s technically Putin and Shoigu’s fault for mismanaging everything. The totally best possible scenario is this happens, it takes them a few years to build the military back up and meanwhile Ukraine manages to get both in the EU and NATO, at which point attacking them again becomes a whole different deal.
That’s most likely a terribly unreasonably optimistic scenario. More likely whatever it is that’s happening right now takes a few days, either Putin or Prigozhin dies and things keep on going somewhat the same, regardless of who’s the de facto dictator. The country is mostly being ran by shady business interests that depend on the dictator, but if they agree on installing a new one could do it.
Sounds like the Russian army is in total disarray at the moment.
The benefit is a distraction on the Russian military side, it may give the counteroffensive from Ukraine a tiny boost. The real impact is probably negligent, it’s not going to make any major changes.
Also, FYI: it’s not “Ukrainian invasion”, Ukraine isn’t invading anyone.
It’s full-on war between Ukraine and Russia.
The impact on this isn’t going to stop the war, only a surrender/peace agreement and full withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukraine’s 1991 borders will end the war.
Russians are used to swapping out regimes and leaderships all the time, so this may not change anything and the war against Ukraine can still continue under a different regime.
Kadyrov’s Akhmat units are heading to Rostov to supposedly counter Wagner’s advance. As of this moment the head of the column is 40km away from Rostov. Worth remembering that just a few weeks ago Kadyrov’s Chechen troops were tipped to take over from Wagner in Ukraine. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-31-2023
Can’t have a proper russian circus snafu clusterfuck without Kadyorov’s Klowns.